Saturday, August 28, 2010

UFC 118: Walking to New Orleans

As Fats Domino played over a montage of Shep Smith weeping on an I-10 overpass, Commissioner Dana White pulled his nuts out the side of his replica 1980's soccer shorts and laughed at you.

Pierce vs. Alves

As Alves fights out of Nova Uniao and has a stellar record, I would love to see him win, I think Pierce's wrestling and top control will get him the decision.

Osipczak vs. Soto

Osipczak has been a complete surprise to me, but I very much like the way he fights. Neither of these fighters has a record long enough to make any real judgments. I think Osipzack has the better package and I go with him for the decision.

Miller vs. Salter

Every time I swear that you should never bet against a Miller the way you should never bet against a Diaz, and here Dan Miller has given us three straight loses. He has fought some good competition, losing to Maia, Sonnen and Bisping, but he has lost by fighting with his head up his ass. Does anyone believe that Bisping had much to offer him on the ground. I very much want Miller to right his own ship here, but Salter, also a wrestler, is a rough match-up for him. Salter also fights out of Birmingham, so I should be yelling a big roll tide for him. Still, desperation is the mother of the ass-kick and I call Miller by violent sub in the 1st.

Winner vs. Lentz

I am a fan of Winner's striking and I somehow feel like he is more of a known commodity, even though his record is sparse. But look at Lentz's record. The Carnie has been rolling. I feel that I must take him for the decision here. Should be a well fought fight, I am looking forward to it.

Lauzon vs. Ruedigar

I have always been a fan of Joe Lauzon. He illustrates one of the truths I have learned in MMA, sometimes the goof looking mother fucker will rip your head off. Lauzon is a very talented grappler. Is Ruedigar a fighter who can move beyond his ridiculous and embarrassing appearance on TUF? He has a surprisingly robust record as of late. Of course, the competition hasn't been top level. I don't see Lauzon losing this one. I think he gets the better of striking and the scrambles and subs Ruedigar in the 3rd.

Diaz vs. Davis

Again, two fighters I like. However, you know the rules, Never bet against a Diaz. And I won't. Nate's boxing isn't quite where his older brother's is, but it is good. No doubt Davis is more technical and Diaz can be obtusely flat footed and will commit to wars that aren't his to fight, but I don't think he will be knocked out and I know he won't be subbed. I think this is a hard fight for Davis and Diaz's reach will wear on him and he will fall to a sub in the 3rd.

Maia vs. Miranda

It will be interesting to see how Maia bounces back from the oddness that befell his title tilt with Anderson Silva. Miranda is no slouch but Maia is one of those guys whose main skill is so far beyond everyone else that I have to call him for the sub in the 1st.

Florian vs. Maynard

Maynard is a strange case, he isn't a super fighter in any respect but he is good enough that I could see him beating anyone in his weight class. Yes, that includes Penn. Maynard is very big for the weight and strong. He punches hard if not well and can control from the top. In the end, I think that Florian's package of skills will be too much for him. Florian can take angles and work form the outside. He will hurt Maynard with strikes and fight through his wrestling. Florian should be able to hurt Maynard enough that his stamina will become a problem. I see Florian taking a bloody decision.

Couture vs. Toney

What is there to say about this really. Toney was a great boxer. His actual punching is probably better than anyone who has ever stepped in the octagon. No, I know it is. But has he showed any real dedication to this fight? Look at him. Look at the guy training him. The second he was introduced as "someone who trains the government and the FBI in defensive techniques" I knew Toney was done. Their is nothing to be gained in a pre-Royce Gracie mindset. The ground work they showed him working was amateur level and won't even buy him a second in the big leagues. Can anyone win with a good (or bad) punch in four once gloves at any second? Absolutely. Is that the only chance Toney has? Absolutely. He isn't even a real boxer anymore. I will be interested in this match, but strictly for laughs. Couture by Toney surrender in the first.

Edgar vs. Penn

Let's get this straight from the start, in no way to I believe Frankie Edgar one their title fight. I don't even think he came close. It was an exhibition of judging at, if not its worst, its very bad. I was an Edgar supporter, and I suppose I still am, but the whole thing seems fake to me. The idea that we have to accept something as real which we can see as wrong. So, in the sense that Edgar can repeat his(admittedly sensible) strategy of saying outside and dashing around firing at volume, and if the judges again ignore effective counter striking, then Edgar has a chance of retaining his title. It should also be noted, and not to make excuses for him, that Penn came out flat in his last fight. Who knows what happens in the mind and training of BJ Penn, but I think he comes out and Fs up Edgar and hurts him and gets the sub in the 4th.

But what do I know.

No comments:

attempting to silence the voices in my head.