Sunday, December 14, 2008

TUF Finale: Bettie Paige Lifetime Achievement Award

There are two factors that make the TUF finals hard to predict. First, the talent levels of the fighters on the show are so disparate it is hard to know who is a good fighter or who just had an easy match-up and therefor looked impressive. Second, after the show the fighters are generally able to step-up their training, and move to real pro gyms and so their level changes greatly from what we saw on TV.

That being said, I will attempt a brief, food poisoning addled prediction.

Polakowski vs. Delgado- I don't know. Don't care so much. Polakowski by KO in the 2nd.

Lawlor vs. Kingsbury- I don't remember who they are.

Roop vs. Nelson- Hmmmm. Maybe Roop?

Bruchez vs. Marshall- Marshall by being a better fighter in the 1st.

Primm vs. Soszynski- Soszynski is a much better striker. I think he will sprawl and brawl and then get a TKO in the 2nd.

Kaplan vs. Browning- Junie's first fight on the show was rather good. His top position grappling was superb. I like that he throws body shots. His last two fights were average to bad. He is training out of Xtreme Couture now, so I am sure his cardio will be better than it was on the show. Kaplan, I don't know if he has much room to improve. Not that he is great, but I think his ceiling is pretty low. If Junie can get on top, he takes the fight. If his cardio is still garbage, he loses. I say Browning by sub in the 2nd.

Johnson vs. Burns- This is a rematch of an earlier fight that ended in a vicious eye poke. Johnson had surgery and is coming back. If Johnson isn't hesitatant in the striking game he wins by TKO in the 3rd.

Gouveia vs. MacDonald- I usually go with the Gouveia win. I don't know on this one. He is coming in not being able to make weight. What does that say? Gouveia could easily get a surprise KO but I am taking his inability to make weight as being significant of something and pick MacDonald by decision in an entertaining grappling match that sees MacDonald pushing for takedowns.

Magalhaes vs. Bader- I didn't really like Magalhaes at first, but his BJJ is the real deal. When all that Bader really has to offer is wrestling. Very good wrestling, I see Magalhaes getting the win. However there is a video floating around out there of Jake Shields, who weighs 170 pounds, handling Vinny in a submission grappling match. But Shields' jiu-jitsu and Bader's wrestling are two different things. Unless Bader has picked up great top position grappling and guard passing in recent months, he loses by sub in the 2nd.

Escudero vs. Nover- Escudero could wrestle this to a decision but what else does he have? I think Nover out strikes him and also has better submisiions. I think the bout is an entertaining back and forth with Nover winning by decision.

There you is. Call me in the emergency room Arash.

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attempting to silence the voices in my head.